A bit of number crunching

We are in Grayling. Its been raining, luckily lightly, on the whole ride up from Anvik. We passed a few teams which has stopped in Shageluk, and thus skipped Anivk. Paul Gebhard, Mitch Seavey, Dee Dee Jonrowe and Jessie Royer. All teams were moving quickly down the trail, a tail wind pushing them along too. Dee Dee was commenting how ” dirty” the trail was with sand showing up. The last time I can remember the Yukon looking like this was in 2005, my first Iditarod. Matter of fact, it was raining on that run from Anvik to Grayling to. Small difference. I was about 2 days behind… running somewhere in 40th place. Now in 2013 I am having a hard time to keep up with the mushers on a snowmachine.

Martin Buser is out first. At the current time, it is his race to loose. Time will tell, when someone really tries to challenge him. Those challengers have to start thinking about making moves soon, or they will run out of trail. 

Aliy Zirkle will do her 8 hr layover here, and she can leave at 17.54. That is 5 hrs behind Martin. She currently has 13 dogs in her team, same as Martin does.

Mitch Seavey is coming from Shageluk. He has already taken his 8 hr rest there. If he wants to make any time on Martin, he needs to skip resting here in Grayling. Risky stuff. Monster run. He should be through around 4 p.m. That WOULD be 3 hrs behind Martin, IF he pushes on.

Jake Berkowitz and Aaron Burmeister can leave 19.37 and 19.06. That is more than 6 hrs behind Martin Buser.  That is some whooping time. Yes Dallas won the race last with being 4.5hrs after the leader into Kaltag and still won the race. But this seems to be a different dynamic. I am by no means saying Martin got it in the bag….. but the challengers have their work cut out. Sonny Lindner is even another hour behind them and the gap is even wider. 

Jake Berkowitz has my attention. Driving a full string of 16 dogs. And they look good. He has been ” banking ” rest, specially on the run into Iditarod. IF he wants to do some catch up, now is the time. Time will tell, how he will run out of Grayling . But if he wants to cash in on the extra rest his team has had…. now is the time. Dang…. looking at his team, I get ” darn itch ” again…. not good.

Jessie Royer camped out on the River last time to Eagle Island. Time will tell, if she will do the same move again. The weather, with it raining, is sure not nice for a campout.

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Lance, Nicolas, Joar, Dee Dee and Paul, would really need to find a second gear and some pretty magic tricks to get close to Martin Buser. Or…. the coast. I remember in 2009, we all piled into Shaktoolik within minutes of each other, but out on the other side in Koyuk, there were 3 of us left standing. Lance in a league of his own, than me and John Baker. This has been a super exiting race to follow. Thanks Martin Buser for shaking things up…. , but also many others running ” not cookie cutter strategies “.

From the sounds of it, there is also challenges coming up, with getting personal and supplies into Eagle Island. It has not been very flyable weather.  I can hear Aliy, Sonny, and Jake talking about that in the back of the room. There is always challenges at Iditarod and mother nature can sure throw a wrench in things. Aliy just told Jake, quit talking, I need to sleep for one more hour. The reply from ” the comms table ” was: ” I got some ductape “.

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Update from half an hour later. Dee Dee and Mitch have arrived in Grayling and both decided to stay. Well, so much for my guessing once again…. , I was off with my Mitch predictions. As it currently looks, Martin is in a league of his own for now and Aliy the nearest challenger with leaving 5hrs after him. IF he would know, which is sure does not, he would have a grin from ear to ear…, that his cagey move all they way back during the first day of the race, has been playing out well so far. I am sure he smiles anyhow…. listening to his tunes from the radiobox in his sled. 

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Bruce Lee multi-tasking