The Takotna checkpoint stirs first this morning with news from pilots analyzing weather for the region.  They report that is already blowing on the Yukon 30 knots and conceivably temperatures could rise with the wind to above freezing.    These winds and temperatures are big factors for mushers leaving iditarod in direction Shageluk over mammoth rolling hills sparsely vegetated and vulnerable to wind.   More on that in a minute when we consider that Martin Buser may be the first musher leaving Iditarod, with a possible three hour lead.

Our lead contenders converge in Ophir

Aaron Burmeister departed Ophir about 1AM followed by Aliy Zirkle and Mitch Seavey.  Jake Berkowitz, who had completed his 24 hour mandatory, also left Ophir with this front phalynx of leading contenders at 2AM.

By using the great tracker tool at the Insider, we deduce that these four, Burmeister, Zirkle, Seavey, and Berkowitz are travelling more or less in a knot, with Zirkle appearing slightly faster.  But, for the sake of the general conversation, they look equal.

Mitch Seavey may have decided to rest on the trail about half way to Iditarod.  Some suspect that he is going to camp outside of checkpoints so as to even up his runs to Anvik on the Yukon.   Pete Kaiser, following behind the lead group is also said to have this same intent.  REst management is now becoming critically important as the goal is to run during the morning and the evening.  Like humans, the physiological dead points of the day for dogs is noon, especiallyif its warm and the sun is shining,  and midnight.   Any thing a musher can do to get on “schedule” could be minutes in advantage.

This lead group shows strength and as can be imagined, are chipping away at the lead of Martin Buser. These teams are fresh off big 24 hour rests and mushers are counting on their teams exuberance tomake big gains.  Martins team has settled into a steady traveling speed since their 24 at Rohn.  Martin is an hour or so from Iditarod, and we can extrapolate that he will lead the field by about 3 hours.

Martin Buser

Martin finds himself in an uncomfortable predicament.   Lance Mackey and Jeff King are waiting out their 24 hour mandatory in Iditarod.   Burmeiser and crew are advancing behind Martin but will be resting in Iditarod when he will exercize his three hour advantage to leave iditarod first about 3PM.

The first thirty miles out of Iditarod is said to be primitive as trail breakers have just broken it out in the last day.   Furthermore, the trail over rolling hills is exposed to the wind that is said to be blowing 30 knots.  Obviously, he will have to break trail for the pack who will find it convenient that their leaders can follow a scent trail of a first team. 

It looks like the pack could chip away at Martin’s lead on this section of trail.

AFter 30 miles the trail is said to have a good base as a trapper from Shageluk has been using it all winter.

Lance and King

Lance and Jeff will certainly be following the lead pack of Buser and Burmeister et al, but they will also get a bump as they come off their 24 hour mandatory about Midnight tonight. 

Visualize then, that Buser will leave about 3PM and Burmeister et al about 4PM to 6PM.

Big Note of caution;   We’re just having fun with the numbers.  I could be all wrong so check out the tools at Insider and double check if you are a serious fan.

Final Thought

General consensus around the checkpoint give Aaron Burmeister and Zirkle the nod.  Both teams are powerful and that appeals to insiders here who think strength is going to be so important negotiating the rolling hills and drifts and blowing snow from iditarod to Shageluk.

The rolling hills guarding the Yukon are monsters to climb, and complicated by winds and blown in trail, will make this section of trail a real grunt and put the advantage to teams with strength.

Media here are making plans to move further up the trail, but we are advised that the winds are going to make rough rides. I note media representing public radio, news outlets, and free lance are packing for a flight to the front of the race.

If possible, I want to check out Iditarod, otherwise the next stop is Anvik on the Yukon.