8:00PM, Lance Mackey departs 5:53PM from Anvik
John Baker scheduled to depart Anvik at 8:27PM
What are people thinking when we look at the stat charts at 8PM this Friday March 8? Who would have ever thought that this Norwegian named Joar Leifseth Ulsom would be in third place behind Aliy Zirkle and Martin Buser, our race leader, on his way to Eagle Island?
I took a snapshot : MARTIN at mile 549. Zirkle at 520. Joar at 516 and Nicolas Petit at 514
I talked to Joar, who is totally conversant in English, about his race in Anvik and he stated that his race was going well, which is an understatement. Alaskans have gotten use to Norwegians that come over and race Iditarod as rookies. They are rookies, technically, but race like top veterans, like Robert Sorlie, who won in 2003 and 2005. My colleagues and I at Insider pegged him as top rookie, but we never imagined he would be positioned to play for the front pack at the halfway point.
Or, get this, total dark horse, unranked and unheralded, Nicolas Petit, the guy we remember with the photo of the malemute from Hawaii on his sled, is now fourth on the Yukon River, about 35 miles behind Martin Buser?
The new fan to the Iditarod must be completely confused. Why would I even mention John Baker, the 2011 champ and current all time record holder who just departed Anvik at mile 486? After all, he is almost 75 miles behind. Isn’t that an insurmountable gap?
And what about the mob of mushers in between such as Mitch and Dallas Seavey, Sonny Lindner, Jessie Royer, running a great race, Jeff King, Berkowitz with 16 dogs, and Pete Kaiser?—just to name a few.
They all deserve mention and have a shot at bagging all the marbles. But, I gave deference to the champs just for the sake of the argument. I tried to really take some time and talk to Lance, Jeff King, and John Baker in Anvik. All three were in Anvik and a considerable distance from the Ginger Bread man Martin Buser, running from the pack to the front of the race.
Here is the main Question! Can you or somebody like you reel in the front of the pack from your current positon. All three answered that it definitely could be done>
In fact, Lance stated that it was in this very location (Anvik) that he began a giant attack to reel in Martin Buser in 2007. He eventually succeeded and assumed ownership of the race on the Bering sea coast at Unalakleet and went on to win the race. Lance and I worked together on his book, The Lance Mackey Story , so I can claim to inside knowledge on how the 4x champ thinks and analyzes situations. It is a long shot, he conceded, but if front runners are running out of their comfort zone, there is half a race to erase early gain and take advantage if any front running teams overestimated their ability to travel fast and falter.
Jeff King, in a separate conversation, offered that he had kept his team within his parameters of performance through the first half of the race. Believing that the same plays and moves could be executed in the last half as the first half, the very conservative champ felt he was ready to make his own move. He too allowed that Buser and Zirkle’s lead was hours, but felt it was very possible to change the established order.
Finally, John Baker offered another viewpoint and maybe the most compelling argument that the race is still worth watching. He presently has 14 dogs, which he has purposefully been running at a fairly slow pace of about 7 to 7.5 miles an hour—-just about the top speed seen on the Bering sea coast in the last half of the race. While Aaraon Burmeister thinks he should never run his dogs faster than 9 mph, Baker thinks a little slower is safer. Therefore, if everything goes right, if the front of the pack falters, he believes he can get back in the mix for a shot at the win.
“I have based my entire strategy on believing that keeping my team at 7 to 7.5 in the first half of the race is good enough to win.” Also, that it is not possible to sustain a torrid pace for the entire race. So, he is waiting for his moment. For him, that means his team has not been stressed , and day by day they are hardened to the trail. Now, he thinks, may be the time to put pressure on the front pack.
In a way, these three champs speak for the others, including Dallas Seavey, the 2012 champ, who we have seen just appear in a group gathering in Grayling.
Through the night, the front leaders Martin Buser and Aliy Zirkle will be closely monitored as the following pack attempts to bring them back to the group, like the peloton in the Tour de France bringing back a break away rider.
Lance
Check out lance’s new leader Grant, named after the president (he has an entire line of dogs named after presidents), who was put in the lead for the first time in this race. Grant was consuming a thick gruel of cooked salmon. With Grant in the lead, he departed at 5:53 PM.
Joar
With rain intermittent all afternoon and temperatures at the checkpoint steady at a ridiculously balmy 45F, Joar designed some rain boots, shown In photo.
John Baker
Nearing John’s departure time from his mandatory 8 hr rest (mushers must declare an 8 hour rest somewhere on the Yukon) he finally decided that it wasn’t going to quit raining. Already, I notice, the snow is now going beyond just being solid ice but turning into a sloppy mess.
He hustled in the village and found some rain gear, and as an extra precaution put his warm gear in a plastic bag used to transport straw bales.
Believing that John may be making a move with his fourteen dog team, I think he is going to travel directly to Eagle Island and attempt to chip away at the lead.
Final thoughts
Weather continues to be unseasonably warm (45 F) and wet with rain. Some pilots told me that weather may change to snow, but we have not seen it here in Anvik.