An Inconsequential Overview

Joe Runyan

No one I know actually believes our viewpoint has any consequence at this point of the race, but my crew of analysts this morning at the Nenana checkpoint has their viewpoints.   Let their analysis begin!!!!!

Mikael Sunstrom from Rovanemi, Finland leads my team

Mikael, taking a sabatical from his engineering studies in Finland, provides valuable insight, having perused the analytics of the Iditarod GPS tracker.  SEveral other handlers here in the checkpoint look over our shoulders and offer opinions.

Ok, so this is what we see over the first cup of cofffee as the checkpoint, exhausted by a nights activity in and out of the checkpoint that comes to life, the battery of neon lights bringing wake-up to the community hall.  While we pour over the gps and checkpoint times, the volunteers begin an immaculate reorginazation of the community hall. Chairs and tables are washed and stored, loose refuse gathered, and the checkpoint put in order.

Martin Buser is the Titular leader

The analytics clearly demonstrate that Buser is our race leader, scorching the trail with  fastest times, yet finding the opportunity to rest for about four hours.  Since we all saw Buser and team loping out of Nenana, rather than trotting, we all wonder if the team can sustain speed over the entire race course.  If they assume a trot, we deduce that the lead may be temporary.

Mitch Seavey, by the analytics, has rested a solid four hours.  However, Mikael and insider Terrel Seavey (same Seavey as Mitch and Dallas) note small rest spikes on the gps graph.   These are indicators that Mitch is rotating dogs into his boxes mounted on the sled.  So (you do the math if inclined) we deduce that Mitch team actually has about 6 hours rest per dog .  Or, maybe more.

I watched a dog switch in Nenana and saw the dogs willingly loading into the sled kennel, I am guessing they are so habituated to resting in the sled that they may actually nap.  We can only conjecture, but it looks like a big advantage.

Dallas Seavey, if you recall, was slow as a row boat on his run into Nenana.  Of the top twenty mushers, he was the slowest.   Yet, we are reminded that he arrived in Nenana with twelve dogs on the tow line and 4 resting in his sled kennels.  Quite impressive.   He is presently fourth in the field as we view the in times at Manley.  The graph suggests that relative to others on run from Nenana to Manley, that team Dallas is gaining speed.  In several conversations with DAllas before the race, its clear that he sees no advantage in speeds exceeding a comfortable 8.5 mile per hour.

NOting the details

Check out the graph analytics of Dallas and one can see that he is still rotating dogs about every 1 1/2 hours.  The indicators are very sharp spikes, which compared to Mitch Seavey, one can see that he is much faster than his DAd on switching dogs.  Dallas has about four hours rest plus the rest his dogs receive in the kennels.

Aberrations

Although our lead competitors are all averaging about fours rest (not to include the dogs resting on the sled) some are taking their breaks in two hour intervals rather than a solid four hour block.  Pete Kaiser, a favorite from the Kuskokwim delta country, took his rests in two hour blocks.  JOar Ulsom, the NOrwegian Barbarian, who is very athletic and known to run down ptarmigan, is very active and to the front.  He took his breaks in a 3 and a 2.5 block.

Well, you decide. ARe two breaks of two hours better than a solid four hour block.   My team likes a sold four hour break because the dogs can actually sleep—-noting the difference between rest and sleep.

Note, I  love this guy from Norway.  Soft spoken, competent, and seemingly tireless, no one seems to know how Joar Ulsom even got here from Norway.  Maybe he did a circumpolar expedition, maybe he walked?  Incedentally, keep an eye on Ralph Johannessen, the Norwegian champ.

A Summary

For what it’s worth—-wild conjecture—-Buser and Mitch Seavey are leading the field.

The next run to Tanana is on the Tanana River, about sixty  miles on exposed river bed.  The Tanana is  complicated, multi-channelled, characterized by long sweeping bends, constant wind and sand bars constantly undermined by shifting currents.  Locals from Tanana do not normally travel on the Tanana.  Its simply too difficult to maintain a trail and the ice is not reliable.