school gym is great place to dry clothes, and eat at school cafetieria operated by village volunteers—great hospitality, absolutely unreal support of mushers

Nikolai—1 am—mile 243

Part of our Insider crew is now in Nikolai, the first Interior village on the trail, at about mile 243.  All of us here wimped out and took a nap after little sleep in the first day of racing. We are staying at the school, which is really the center of this small community.  The luxury of heat and running water makes this a five star destination.  Our crew decimated huge offerings of spaghetti prepared by the community.   I took a few photos of the gymnasium and the accomodations for the mushers.  Locals are great and already gearing up to feed mushers.  The opportunity to dry out gear and get some sleep is huge.

sleeping trail crew grabbing nap as mushers work way across to Nikolai. they will soon launch again to stay ahead of the pack

  I finally got up at 1Am to look at the times and get a sense of what’s happening to the front. Locals here in the village are looking at a 9Am arrival of the lead pack.

Musher only sleeping area. Exhausted, damp, the chance to grab a nap in warmth is pure luxury for mushers

Who’s to the front?

Martin Buser, resting in Rohn, has to be made the race leader.  Pushing to the front of the pack with a huge 20 hour effort to Rohn, he is technically leading the race by about 8 hours. In order to execute his very unorthodox strategy, he declared a 24 hour mandatory at mile 169 in Rohn.  This is very early in the race and some wonder if it will backfire a couple of days down the trail.  The problem is he did it by cutting rest and this puts a big question mark on his lead.  Still, when you look at his travel times, he is in the fastest group of mushers to include Mitch Seavey, Aliy Zirkle, and Jeff King.  Buser is a 4x champ and must have stayed up nights for the last year considering the pros and cons of a very risky schedule, so inside fans are watching with interest. 

After all the maneuvering over the Alaska Range—different schedules of run and rest—I think we can say that Mitch Seavey’s team has emerged as the fastest on the trail.  His travel times are dominating the field, and since we know him as a conservative, very cautious, musher, this is even more impressive.

Mitch Seavey is known to lean on the brake if necessary to keep his team under control.   He will resist the impulse to let the team rock and roll in order to keep the team out of the injury zone.  Yet, his team is smoking. 

As an aside, I bet some mushers are wishing that they paid more attention to Mitch Seavey’s advice.  Mushers with teams that flashed to the front without the necessary credibility are realizing that a controlled pace, especially in the early going when sled dogs are inclined to perform over their heads, is absolutely critical to successfully putting the 1000 mile Iditarod trail in the bag.

Aliy Zirkle and Jeff King are not far behind.  Therefore I put Mitch, Jeff King, Aliy Zirkle, and wild card Martin Buser in our temporary lead pack.

Who’s challenging?

Just as race wise fans suspected,  Aaron Burmeister, Ray Redington, John Baker, Pete Kaiser, Lance and Jason Machey et al are right in the hunt, although they are traveling slower by a slight margin.  Typically, these teams always seem to be more predictable.  Aaron Burmeister, for example, is driving a team of piranhas—they are just eating everything he offers—and they are really fleshed up, carrying lots of reserves, and travelling smoothly.

He is one of those patient guys that knows his careful approach will gradually turn into speed and power a few days into the race.  He is not interested in a lot of flash in the first days of mushing and is purposefully keeping the asylum of his barking dogs under control.   As mentioned in other articles, he will not let the team go faster than about 9 miles an hour—-a zone he considers high risk for athletic injury.  

John Baker, 1x champ, is a bit of a conundrum.   His travel times are relatively average.  His dogs were trained above the arctic circle at Kotzebue in very severe weather, so they have a very dense coat. Additionally, he brought the dogs into the start carrying lots of weight.  As the weather has been very warm—above freezing yesterday in Rainy Pass—his dogs must be having a little trouble keeping cool.  So, they are probably running a little slower.  Typically, his team gets stronger in the middle and later part of the race.  If the weather is nasty on the coast, Baker’s team will begin to dominate.

Still, Baker is in the front pack, just waiting for the right conditions for his team.

Dallas Seavey, 2012 champ, and a big crowd of mushers like Pete Kaiser , Jake Berkowitz, and new mushers Savedis, are in the front phalynx ready to make a charge at the leaders.  If anybody falters, they will be there to take advantage.

Lance Mackey

Lance Mackey, the incredible 4x champ, deserves mention.   He had some trouble with his team this winter and failed to get his team moving in the Yukon Quest, a 1000 mile race he has dominated with four wins.  He scratched at Dawson this year, a very uncharacteristic development for a guy that has literally overwhelmed the competition in all kinds of race formats.   Its possible, he said, that his feed ration might have been at fault.  At any rate, he seems to have corrected for these problems, and re-assembled a team. 

Never count Mackey out.  Some fans may have discounted his chances this year, given his problems this winter.   He is in the front pack, well positioned and taking a long rest in Rohn.

What to Expect today

The crossing from Rohn to Nikolai is fairly straight forward over relatively flat going.  The trail is now in the great Yukon River Basin.  Once the mushers get past some gnarly glare ice and rough going just out of the Rohn Checkpoint, they should have good travelling.

Trail breakers reported that segments of the trail over the Nikolae Burn (fires have variously scorched the flats, but the debris has been moved from the trail) are a little light on snow, it won’t bother the teams even when they are kicking up dust on areas of the trail blown bare by wind.

Today will show us a lot about the teams as mushers like Seavey, now safely over the dicey Alaska Range, will let their teams really demonstrate strength.

Long range Strategy

Now, mushers are making some decisions about where to take their 24 hour mandatory. Nikolai is mile 243. 

Many mushers will declare their Mandatory 24 hour rest in Takotna at mile 307.  BUT< others are considering forging on to Iditarod at mile 405.  Either decision will require a difference in strategy.  Takotna bound mushers will take a short rest in Nikolae and launch to Takotna.

The Iditarod bound mushers will take a longer view and probably rest slightly more.

What’s the advantage of going to Iditarod?  Ahead of the pack, a team would be well rested and ready to attack the Yukon river trail.  IDITAROD is just short of halfway

What’s the advantage of Takotna?  This is a much safer strategy as the trail to Iditarod, a very remote and seldom travelled area, could be soft and punchy.  Takotna has very good accomodations for dogs and mushers, but, it is only about a third of the way to the finish.  Some mushers want to rest further up the trail.

Final Thoughts

Honest race leaders will emerge today.  Watch for times suggesting the strongest teams to this small remote village of Nikolai. The hospitality and genuine generosity of the Nikolai community is legendary.  Mushers will dry out gear and collapse in deep sleep in the warmth of the gymnasium.  Instinctively, all will wake from a nap, wander to the cafeteria window and load up on cooked meals.