9PM—Looking at the times into rohn—Monday evening

Like so many fans, I just can’t help looking at the gps little dots and the checkpoint times at my Insider account.   Trying to wring some meaning from the thrusts and parries of front runners Hugh, Lance Mackey, Baker, and the presently unknown intentions of Aliy Zirkle (did you see how she blistered the trail into Rohn and then rocketed out of onto the gravel bars of the Kuskokwim?) remains an enjoyable mental exercise.

For starters, I can’t help identifying the race of Hugh and Lance, given their rigorous race strategy so far this season.  Resting in Rohn, it seems logical they will unloose their dogs for a statement run—about 70 miles —across the Nikolai burn to the village of Nikolai.   Meanwhile, Aliy appears committed to an often used strategy to cut one rest to Takotna.  I am guessing she will camp on the Burn, the scorched remnant of  fire damage, about twenty miles from the Rohn checkpoint.  This sets up an interesting dynamic as she can easily run to Nikolai in the early morning.

But heres the most important insight.   We can’t predict the emergence of a winning team, but we can imagine the night.  It could be one of the most exciting nights of the race, as mushers will guide their teams across the Kuskowkwim on an expanse of ice, frozen gravel barriers of drift wood while negotiating a stiff wind.  Once across the river the trail portages a very challenging test through small spruce, across tundra, frozen ice and glaciers, an annoying accumulation of seep that has frozen over a winter into concrete hard mounds.  Ideally, the leaders are trained to negotiate all this, while the team hammers the harness with nearly uncontrollable exuberance.  Very exciting dog driving.

Thankfully, the trail mellows  after several hours of intense concentration and the musher can focus on the remaing 5 or 6 hours of run time to Nikolai.  The musher can expect wrecks, falls, flips, and delays, all accompanied by dogs lunging at the harness.  If all goes well, the team will emerge healthy and fast, a contender in this year’s race.